It then started using a wider set of options based on the broader S&P 500 Index, an expansion that allows for a more accurate view of investors’ expectations of future market volatility. A methodology was adopted that remains in effect and is also used for calculating various other variants of the volatility index. It’s important to note here that while volatility can have negative connotations, like greater risk, more stress, deeper uncertainty or bigger market declines, volatility itself is a neutral term. Greater volatility means that an index or security is seeing bigger price changes—higher or lower—over shorter periods of time. The higher the VIX, the greater the level of fear and uncertainty in the market, with levels above 30 indicating tremendous uncertainty. Active traders who employ their own trading strategies and advanced algorithms use VIX values to price the derivatives, which are based on high beta stocks.
Market professionals refer to this as “implied volatility”—implied because the VIX tracks the options market, where traders make bets about the future performance of different securities and market indices, such as the S&P 500. Prices are weighted to gauge whether investors believe the S&P 500 index will be gaining ground or losing value over the near term. Large institutional investors hedge their portfolios using S&P 500 options to position themselves as winners whether the market goes up or down, and the VIX index follows these trades to gauge market volatility.
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There are a range of different securities based on the CBOE Volatility Index that provide investors with exposure to the VIX. For people watching the VIX index, it’s understood that the S&P 500 stands in for “the stock market” or 10 big mistakes forex day traders make “the market” as a whole. When the VIX index moves higher, this reflects the fact that professional investors are responding to more price volatility in the S&P 500 in particular and markets more generally. When the VIX declines, investors are betting there will be smaller price moves up or down in the S&P 500, which implies calmer markets and less uncertainty. As a rule of thumb, VIX values greater than 30 are generally linked to large volatility resulting from increased uncertainty, risk, and investors’ fear. VIX values below 20 generally correspond to stable, stress-free periods in the markets.
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For example, the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) and the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) are two such offerings that track a certain VIX-variant index and take positions in linked futures contracts. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants.
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The VIX index is specifically measuring expected volatility for another index, the S&P 500. True to its name, the S&P 500 index is composed of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. Because the S&P 500 includes so many large companies across several different market sectors, it is generally viewed as a good indication of how the U.S. stock market is performing overall. For instance, a stock having a beta of +1.5 indicates that it is theoretically 50% more volatile than the market. Traders making bets through options of such high beta stocks utilize the VIX volatility values in appropriate proportion to correctly price their options trades. Instead, investors can take a position in VIX through futures or options contracts, or through VIX-based exchange-traded products (ETPs).
- When investors trade options, they are essentially placing bets on where they think the price of a specific security will go.
- The investing information provided on this page is for educational purposes only.
- While the VIX itself is an index and cannot be traded, there are funds and notes investors and traders can participate in to gain exposure to the index.
- Downside risk can be adequately hedged by buying put options, the price of which depends on market volatility.
- One of the most popular and accessible of these is the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY), which is based on VIX futures contracts with a 30-day maturity.
- Before investing in any VIX exchange-traded products, you should understand some of the issues that can come with them.
Such VIX-linked instruments allow pure volatility exposure and have created a new asset class. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) quantifies market expectations of volatility, providing investors and traders with insight into market sentiment. traders of the new era It helps market participants gauge potential risks and make informed trading decisions, such as whether to hedge or make directional trades. While the VIX itself is an index and cannot be traded, there are funds and notes investors and traders can participate in to gain exposure to the index. The CBOE Volatility Index—also known as the VIX—is a primary gauge of stock market volatility.
Products based on other market indexes include the Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN); the CBOE DJIA Volatility Index (VXD); and the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX). Volatility values, investors’ fears, and VIX values all move up when the market is falling. The reverse is true when the market advances—the index values, fear, and volatility decline. Many, or all, of the products featured on this page are from our advertising partners who compensate us when you take certain actions on our website or click to take an action on their website. This may influence which products we review and write about (and where those products appear on the site), but it in no way affects our recommendations or advice, which are grounded in thousands of hours of research.
How is VIX calculated?
The VIX index tracks the tendency of the S&P 500 to move away from and then revert Swing trading strategies to the mean. When the stock markets appear relatively calm but the VIX index spikes higher, professionals are betting that prices on the S&P 500—and thereby the stock market as a whole—may be moving higher or lower in the near term. When the VIX moves lower, investors may view this as a sign the index is reverting to the mean, with the period of greater volatility soon to end. Downside risk can be adequately hedged by buying put options, the price of which depends on market volatility. Astute investors tend to buy options when the VIX is relatively low and put premiums are cheap. One of the most popular and accessible of these is the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY), which is based on VIX futures contracts with a 30-day maturity.
Options are derivative instruments whose price depends upon the probability of a particular stock’s current price moving enough to reach a particular level (called the strike price or exercise price). The bank reminds investors that in prior years, markets didn’t immediately recover from August market shocks. Then S&P downgraded US debt in August 2011, and China surprised the world in 2015 by devaluing its currency, the yuan. The chart above tracks the average VIX level across the calendar year, using data from 1990 to 2023.
The VIX measures the market’s expectation of S&P 500 volatility over the next 30 days as calculated from options on the benchmark. It doesn’t account for actual fear but rather reflects the market’s best estimate of future volatility, which often coincides with market fear or panic. Perhaps the most straightforward way to invest in the VIX is with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs) based on VIX futures. As exchange-traded products, you can buy and sell these securities like stocks, greatly simplifying your VIX investing strategy. As the range of strike prices for puts and calls on the S&P 500 increases, it indicates that the investors placing the options trades are predicting some price movement up or down.
Such volatility, as implied by or inferred from market prices, is called forward-looking implied volatility (IV). The first method is based on historical volatility, using statistical calculations on previous prices over a specific time period. This process involves computing various statistical numbers, like mean (average), variance, and finally, the standard deviation on the historical price data sets. In addition to being an index to measure volatility, traders can also trade VIX futures, options, and ETFs to hedge or speculate on volatility changes in the index. As an investor, if you see the VIX rising it could be a sign of volatility ahead. You might consider shifting some of your portfolio to assets thought to be less risky, like bonds or money market funds.
The VIX volatility index offers insight into how financial professionals are feeling about near-term market conditions. Understanding how the VIX works and what it’s saying can help short-term traders tweak their portfolios and get a feel for where the market is headed. Just keep in mind that with investing, there’s no way to predict future stock market performance or time the market. The VIX is merely a suggestion, and it’s been proven to be wrong about the future direction of markets nearly as often as it’s been right. That’s why most everyday investors are best served by regularly investing in diversified, low-cost index funds and letting dollar-cost averaging smooth out any pricing swings over the long term.
